Key Highlights

  • The International Energy Agency's monthly oil market report is set for release before US trading on Friday, November 13, 2026.
  • Thursday's settlements put West Texas Intermediate at USD 88.74, a gain of 2.55%, and Brent at USD 95.82, a gain of 3.30%, following reports of strikes on Saudi energy facilities.
  • This piece poses the questions instead of supplying answers, since the new report's numbers were unavailable at drafting time.
  • August's edition, the latest verified, reported 8.3 million barrels a day of Gulf shut-ins alongside a projected 4.3 million barrel-a-day Supply drop for 2026.

Timing Collides With a Sharp Oil Rally

The International Energy Agency issues its oil market report every month, and this November edition lands before US trading on Friday, alongside the October producer price index. Its coverage spans demand, supply, stock levels and refinery activity, which is why the release often shifts crude prices: few forecasts pull all four together so widely read. Timing is delicate. Thursday saw West Texas Intermediate settle 2.55% higher at USD 88.74 and Brent climb to USD 95.82, a 3.30% advance, as reported strikes hit Saudi pipeline sites, Red Sea facilities and tankers in Hormuz. A release that quantifies supply at risk or revises Demand could extend or reverse that move. Edition figures had not come out at drafting, so readers ought to line up the headline data against the points below once they are released. The fund in question, United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), is anchored in near-month WTI contracts, which means its reaction comes from the curve's front end.

The Last Verified Projections, From August

The most recent edition verified in the research came out in August. It forecast a 2026 global oil demand decline of 1.6 million barrels a day, a 510,000 barrel-a-day downgrade from the previous month, and 2027 growth of 2.4 million barrels a day. Output in July came in at 101.5 million barrels a day, which was 6.3 million under the level of a year before, and Gulf shut-ins sat at 8.3 million barrels daily. The 2026 supply contraction was put at 4.3 million barrels a day, followed by a 2027 recovery of 8.3 million barrels a day that lifts output to 110.3 million. Q3 registered a 1.8 million barrel-a-day shortfall, versus roughly 800,000 previously, and the report anticipated a move back to surplus around year-end 2026. Those figures are three months old and may have changed, so treat them as background rather than the current outlook. For United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), these older numbers matter less than the futures curve it holds.

Four Variables for the New Edition

Four items matter most. The first is the 2026 and 2027 demand revisions, since higher prices and a weaker economy can trim consumption. The second is the supply path, particularly whether Gulf output returns on the timetable previously assumed or whether fresh attacks push it back. The third is inventories, because draws support prices while builds weigh on them. The fourth is the overall balance, specifically whether the agency still sees surplus by late 2026, which would limit the rally. Commentary from OPEC and its partners is another item on traders' lists. Interest-rate decisions form another layer, since a December increase would weigh on growth and dent fuel use. Roll costs also weigh on United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), which means the futures curve's slope can alter results apart from the spot move. Prices near USD 96 for Brent and USD 89 for WTI leave limited Margin for complacency.

Where Things Stand

Oil has rallied on Gulf risk, and the new report's demand, supply and balance numbers could either back or contest that gain. Check the new numbers versus the release when it appears. Next up are Friday's producer prices and remarks from Fed officials, while United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) may respond quickly to any shift in supply expectations.