Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX:ALL) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 8th of December to A$0.49. The payment will take the dividend yield to 1.7%, which is in line with the average for the industry.

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Aristocrat Leisure's Projected Earnings Seem Likely To Cover Future Distributions

We aren't too impressed by dividend yields unless they can be sustained over time. Based on the last payment, Aristocrat Leisure was quite comfortably earning enough to cover the dividend. This indicates that a lot of the earnings are being reinvested into the business, with the aim of fueling growth.

Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand by 75.1%. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 31% by next year, which is in a pretty sustainable range.ASX:ALL Historic Dividend November 16th 2025

View our latest analysis for Aristocrat Leisure

Dividend Volatility

While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the dividend has gone from A$0.16 total annually to A$0.98. This means that it has been growing its distributions at 20% per annum over that time. Despite the rapid growth in the dividend over the past number of years, we have seen the payments go down the past as well, so that makes us cautious.

The Dividend's Growth Prospects Are Limited

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. In the last five years, Aristocrat Leisure's earnings per share has shrunk at approximately 2.3% per annum. A modest decline in earnings isn't great, and it makes it quite unlikely that the dividend will grow in the future unless that trend can be reversed. Earnings are predicted to grow over the next year, but we would remain cautious until a track record of earnings growth is established.

Our Thoughts On Aristocrat Leisure's Dividend

Overall, this is probably not a great income stock, even though the dividend is being raised at the moment. The company is generating plenty of cash, which could maintain the dividend for a while, but the track record hasn't been great. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.

It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. Without at least some growth in earnings per share over time, the dividend will eventually come under pressure either from competition or inflation. Businesses can change though, and we think it would make sense to see what analysts are forecasting for the company. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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