As Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL readies to announce its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, investors are closely watching for insights into the company's performance amid a challenging retail landscape. The earnings report, scheduled for release on May 29, before the opening bell, is expected to provide critical indicators of how Burlington Stores has navigated recent economic shifts.

The off-price retailer, known for offering high-quality branded apparel at everyday low prices, is anticipated to show a notable increase in its top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $2.52 billion, implying a 6.9% rise from the prior year's reported figure. This potential growth reflects Burlington's ability to maintain momentum despite a tough operational environment.

Burlington Stores is expected to witness a decline in the bottom line. Although the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has risen by a penny to $1.40 over the past seven days, it still indicates a decrease from $1.42 reported in the same quarter last year.

Burlington Stores has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Burlington, NJ-based company outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.2%. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

The Dynamics Behind Burlington’s Q1 Earnings

Burlington Stores is likely to have benefited from value-driven consumer behavior, thanks to its off-price model that offers branded apparel and home goods at compelling discounts. As shoppers remain cautious, the retailer’s ability to deliver on-trend merchandise at prices lower than department stores is likely to have helped it capture wallet share. Its focused assortment of seasonal fashion, home essentials, and everyday value is likely to have boosted store traffic and conversion rates.

Management has focused heavily on improving the fashion mix and relevance of its offerings under the “eliminate to elevate” initiative. This involves reducing lower-performing categories and reallocating floor space toward higher-margin, fast-turning branded merchandise.

The company’s aggressive expansion strategy, including new store openings in high-traffic markets and relocations from slower-growth areas, continues to broaden its reach and attract new demographics. Additionally, the ability to rapidly adjust inventory based on real-time data insights allows Burlington to capitalize on emerging trends. This approach not only drives foot traffic but also improves store productivity. 

Despite the aforementioned tailwinds, margins remain a concern. On its last earnings call, BURL guided a 50-90 basis points contraction in the adjusted EBIT margin. This margin compression is likely to weigh on the bottom line, reflecting higher marketing spend and increased incentive compensation, all against a backdrop of flattish comparable sales.

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Burlington Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseBurlington Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Burlington Stores, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Burlington Stores, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Predicts for BURL

As investors prepare for Burlington Stores' first-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Burlington Stores this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Burlington Stores has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.43%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three more companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Dollar General Corporation DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.38% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $1.48, implying a 10.3% year-over-year decline. 

Dollar General’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $10.28 billion, which indicates an increase of 3.7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.2%, on average.

The Kroger Co. KR has an Earnings ESP of +0.69% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. KR’s top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $45.38 billion, which suggests a 0.3% rise from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Kroger’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.44 per share, up 1% from the year-ago quarter. KR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.6%, on average.

BJ's Wholesale Club BJ has an Earnings ESP of +1.10% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. BJ’s top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.18 billion, which suggests a 5.2% rise from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for BJ's Wholesale’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at 91 cents a share, up 7.1% from the year-ago quarter. BJ has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, on average.

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