McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. McDonald's missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$6.0b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.60, falling short by 2.8% and 3.3% respectively. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on McDonald's after the latest results.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about McDonald's. View them for free.NYSE:MCD Earnings and Revenue Growth May 14th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for McDonald's from 30 analysts is for revenues of US$26.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 2.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.0% to US$12.22. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$26.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.31 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for McDonald's

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$332, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic McDonald's analyst has a price target of US$364 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$300. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that McDonald's' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that McDonald's is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that McDonald's' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$332, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on McDonald's. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple McDonald's analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for McDonald's (1 is significant!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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