O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORLY) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.3% to US$1,054 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$4.0b and statutory earnings per share of US$9.20. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for O'Reilly Automotive  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for O'Reilly Automotive from 26 analysts is for revenues of US$16.9b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 5.2% to US$42.38. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$16.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$42.41 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$1,144, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic O'Reilly Automotive analyst has a price target of US$1,275 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$780. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that O'Reilly Automotive's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that O'Reilly Automotive is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.



The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for O'Reilly Automotive going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that  O'Reilly Automotive is showing  3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is potentially serious...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.