(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump appears to prefer US oil prices between $40 and $50 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., citing an in-house analysis of his social-media posts on the topic.

Most Read from Bloomberg

As Coastline Erodes, One California City Considers ‘Retreat Now’ What’s Behind the Rise in Serious Injuries on New York City’s Streets? A New Central Park Amenity, Tailored to Its East Harlem Neighbors How Finland Is Harvesting Waste Heat From Data Centers Lawsuit Challenges Trump Administration Policy on Migrant Children

Trump “has always been focused on oil and on US energy dominance, having posted nearly 900 times,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a report. His “inferred preference for WTI appears to be around $40 to $50 a barrel, where his propensity to post about oil prices bottoms,” they said.

Oil prices — both global crude benchmark Brent, as well as US counterpart West Texas Intermediate , or WTI — are often buffeted by the president’s prolific social-media commentary, which can reference everything from OPEC policy and US gasoline prices to sanctions against nations including Iran. His administration has favored increased domestic production, as well as a broad push for cheap energy to help bring down inflation.

The US leader “tends to call for lower prices (or celebrate falling prices) when WTI is greater than $50,” the analysts said. “In contrast, President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI less than $30) often in the context of supporting US production.”

WTI — which last traded just above $63 a barrel — has shed 12% so far this year, hurt by the fallout from Trump’s trade tariffs, as well as a decision by OPEC+ to loosen supply curbs at a faster-than-expected pace. Still, prices have recovered some ground after the US and China scaled back some levies for 90 days, rising from a four-year closing low seen earlier this month.

The president’s “inferred preference for relatively low oil prices directionally supports our view that oil prices are likely to edge lower in 2025-2026,” the analysts said, while also noting upside risks to expectations given the recent de-escalation of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

(Updates with comment in final paragraph. )

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

Cartoon Network’s Last Gasp DeepSeek’s ‘Tech Madman’ Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race Trump Has Already Ruined Christmas Why Obesity Drugs Are Getting Cheaper — and Also More Expensive The Recession Chatter Is Getting Louder. Watch These Metrics

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

View Comments