Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.7% to US$35.98 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenues of US$139m came in 3.6% below estimates, but statutory losses were slightly better than expected, at US$1.57 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical. View them for free.NasdaqGS:RARE Earnings and Revenue Growth May 9th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$649.5m in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 10.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 11% from last year to US$5.16. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$655.8m and US$5.21 per share in losses.

See our latest analysis for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$90.15, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical analyst has a price target of US$136 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$39.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 17% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$90.15, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted  1 warning sign for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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