Key Highlights

  • Following third-quarter results below consensus and a reduced full-year outlook, Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) dropped about 12% in after-hours trading on November 10, 2026.
  • Third-quarter Revenue grew 42% to about USD 18.0 million from USD 12.7 million, a 77% rise excluding the maritime Business sold in 2025, and the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to USD 8.6 million.
  • The 2026 revenue guide now stands at USD 75 million to USD 80 million, down from USD 75 million to USD 85 million and under the roughly USD 80 million consensus, with an adjusted EBITDA loss guide of USD 27.4 million to USD 32.4 million.
  • Two NOAA awards worth USD 33.2 million and USD 28 million were secured, and a preliminary 2027 revenue range of USD 96 million to USD 106 million was provided.

Where the Report Fell Short

Spire Global operates a constellation of small satellites that gather weather, radio occultation and aircraft tracking data, which it sells to government and commercial customers. Third-quarter revenue of about USD 18.0 million showed solid growth, up 42% year on year and 77% when the maritime business sold last year is excluded, yet revenue and adjusted EBITDA both landed under analyst expectations. Guidance was the larger concern. By narrowing the 2026 revenue range to USD 75 million to USD 80 million, the company dropped the top of its earlier outlook and left the midpoint under consensus. It also pointed to an adjusted EBITDA loss of USD 27.4 million to USD 32.4 million, wider than the roughly USD 24.2 million loss the market had anticipated, and said it will stop giving non-GAAP Earnings Per Share guidance. Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) shares dropped about 12% after hours.

Encouraging Details

The report did contain some encouragement. Gross Margin rose to 46% from 37% a year earlier, and the GAAP loss narrowed to USD 0.52 a share from USD 0.61, while the adjusted EBITDA loss improved to USD 8.6 million from USD 11.8 million. Demand from government customers is building. Spire secured a USD 33.2 million NOAA task order for radio occultation data, which supports better weather forecasts, along with a USD 28 million contract for a hyperspectral microwave sounder. Remaining performance obligations, which measure contracted future revenue, totalled USD 175.4 million. Cash and marketable securities of USD 78.0 million and an absence of Debt leave room to execute without near-term funding pressure. The preliminary 2027 revenue range of USD 96 million to USD 106 million implies growth of roughly 25% to 35% from the 2026 midpoint.

Points to Monitor

For Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR), investors will track when government contract revenue lands, since it can be uneven and often explains why small space companies miss quarterly forecasts. Whether the USD 175.4 million in contracted obligations converts into revenue, and how quickly adjusted EBITDA approaches breakeven, will show if the guidance cut reflects timing or weaker demand. Canadian investors who hold US-listed space small caps through a domestic brokerage will note mixed results across the group this week, including a satellite imaging company with revenue up 342% while others felt pressure from rising interest rates. A US government funding resolution in the coming weeks also matters because federal agencies are major customers. Delivery on the 2027 outlook and any fresh NOAA or defence awards would be the main catalysts for a share price recovery.

Where Things Stand

Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) dropped about 12% after hours on November 10, 2026 as third-quarter revenue of about USD 18.0 million and adjusted EBITDA missed forecasts and 2026 revenue guidance was trimmed to USD 75 million to USD 80 million. Better margins, NOAA awards and USD 175.4 million of contracted revenue help, and a debt-free Balance Sheet gives flexibility. Contract timing is the main item to watch.