Key Highlights

  • ADT (NYSE:ADT) accepted an Acquisition by Thrive Holdings at USD 10.00 per share in cash, with completion expected in the first quarter of 2027, at which point the shares will cease trading on the NYSE.
  • Third quarter 2026 Revenue reached USD 1,349 million, up 4%, and Net Income hit USD 151 million, also up 4%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at USD 665 million, down 2%, and the Margin landed at 49% compared with 52% a year earlier.
  • ADT pulled its earlier guidance because of the pending deal. In the quarter it bought back 3 million shares, spending USD 23 million, and year to date it has retired 89 million shares costing USD 617 million.
  • Market data on the screener place ADT at USD 9.83, with an RSI reading of 87.53 and a 0.30% decline in the latest session on 22.37 million shares. Treat these screener numbers as unconfirmed.

A Cash Deal Sets the Ceiling

ADT released third quarter 2026 figures on November 3, 2026, the same day it disclosed that Thrive Holdings will buy the company for USD 10.00 per share in cash. Revenue of USD 1,349 million climbed 4%, and net income of USD 151 million also grew 4%. Recurring monthly revenue was USD 360 million, slipping 1%, while trailing gross customer revenue attrition reached 13.1%. ADT (NYSE:ADT) offers no guidance because it was withdrawn once the agreement was signed. Trading on the NYSE is expected to end after the close, which management anticipates in the first quarter of 2027.

What an Overbought Reading Means

The relative strength index, or RSI, weighs average gains against average losses across a set window, usually 14 days, and scales the output from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 are conventionally labeled overbought, which means price has climbed quickly relative to its recent history. The measure makes no forecast of a decline and looks only at price. On published market data ADT registers 87.53 at USD 9.83, roughly 1.7% under the USD 10.00 offer, a simple calculation on two numbers. In our view the elevated RSI reflects a price moving toward a fixed cash offer, not speculative momentum, though the screener figures are unconfirmed.

Risks and What to Watch

The gap to USD 10.00 reflects time until closing and the possibility that the deal fails, for instance through regulatory, financing or Shareholder conditions. If the transaction collapsed, the shares could drop well below today's level, and that downside is what the narrow spread compensates for. Adjusted FCF with swaps included reached USD 217 million in the quarter, up USD 8 million, and USD 1,037 million year to date, a 46% gain. Investors should monitor deal approvals, any shift in terms, the calendar for shareholder and regulatory actions, plus the closing date. A standard RSI signal carries little weight for a stock held near a fixed offer. The discount still left under the offer may narrow as closing nears, yet it could widen sharply if a regulator, lender or shareholder vote casts doubt on completion.

Where Things Stand

ADT is overbought on RSI because its price has moved close to the USD 10.00 cash offer from Thrive Holdings, not because buyers are chasing growth. The offer limits the upside, and on screener data the shares trade about 1.7% under it, with the leftover gap reflecting time and deal risk. ADT (NYSE:ADT) delivered solid profit and cash flow, but the Investment case now depends on the deal closing in the first quarter of 2027.