The TSX Index is expected to open on a cautious note

The S&P/TSX Composite index is expected to open on a cautious note as investors assess escalating tensions in the Middle East following renewed concerns surrounding Iran, while a sharp rise in Crude Oil prices is likely to provide support to energy-related stocks.

From a technical perspective, the index closed at 34,413.45 and continues to trade above its 50-day SMA of 33,897.65, keeping the broader trend constructive despite recent weakness. Immediate support is seen near 34,070, followed by 33,725, while resistance is located around 34,758 and 35,102. A move above resistance could help restore upward momentum, whereas a break below support may lead to further consolidation in the near term.

Global Market Sentiment

Global markets are starting the week focused on the implications of recent labour market data and what it means for Central Bank policy over the coming months. Investors continue to evaluate whether economic growth is slowing enough to justify monetary easing while remaining strong enough to avoid a significant economic downturn.

The debate around the timing of potential interest-rate cuts remains a key market theme. While Inflation pressures have generally moderated, policymakers continue to emphasize a data-dependent approach, leaving markets highly sensitive to upcoming inflation reports, consumer spending data, and Business activity surveys.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments and global trade trends continue to influence investor sentiment, particularly across Commodity-sensitive sectors.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: WTI crude futures jumped more than 4% to above $94 per barrel on Monday, rebounding from a two-session decline after Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes, threatening to derail President Trump's efforts to secure a new 60-day ceasefire with Tehran.
• Gold: Gold slipped below $4,300 an ounce on Monday, falling to its lowest level in more than two months after Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes, raising concerns that the latest escalation could undermine President Donald Trump's efforts to secure a new 60-day ceasefire agreement with Tehran.
• Silver: Silver slipped below $67 an ounce on Monday, falling to its lowest level in more than two months after Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes, raising concerns that the latest escalation could undermine President Donald Trump's efforts to secure a new 60-day ceasefire agreement with Tehran.
• Copper: Copper futures remained below $6.3 per pound on Monday after falling roughly 6% over the previous three sessions, pressured by robust US jobs data that strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve Interest Rate increase later this year.

Sector watch

Energy: Expected to remain one of the most influential TSX sectors, particularly if crude oil prices continue to hold recent gains.

Materials: Gold miners may benefit from safe-haven Demand, while base-metal producers react to global growth expectations.

Financials: Canadian banks remain sensitive to Yield/">Bond Yield movements and evolving expectations for interest rates and economic growth.

Industrials: Infrastructure, transportation, and engineering firms could see increased investor interest if economic sentiment improves.

Technology: Canadian technology stocks are likely to track broader North American growth-stock performance and Treasury Yield trends.

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar remains closely linked to commodity markets, particularly crude oil. Strength in energy prices could support the loonie, while broader U.S. dollar trends will also remain influential.

Canadian bond yields are expected to move in line with U.S. Treasuries as investors continue reassessing interest-rate expectations following recent economic data. Yield movements will be closely watched by financials, utilities, and real estate sectors. 

What to watch today

• Early moves in crude oil, gold, and copper
• Market reaction to recent North American employment data
• Canadian and U.S. bond yield movements
• Canadian dollar performance against the U.S. dollar
• Corporate updates from major TSX-listed energy, Mining, and financial companies

Outlook

TSX expected to open cautiously higher as investors balance commodity strength with evolving expectations for interest rates and economic growth.

Bottom Line: Oil prices, precious metals, and bond yields are likely to drive TSX performance on June 8, with energy, materials, and financials expected to remain the key sectors shaping market direction throughout the session.