The TSX Index is expected to open on a green note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a positive note, supported by strength in the basic materials and technology sectors during the previous trading session.

From a technical standpoint, the index remains firmly above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the prevailing bullish trend and indicating that buyers continue to maintain control of the broader market direction. The index is now approaching a key resistance zone near 35,450, which represents an important test of upside momentum. A decisive breakout above this level could strengthen bullish sentiment, attract additional buying interest, and pave the way for a move toward the psychologically significant 35,650 mark. On the downside, immediate support is located around 35,100. Holding above this level would help preserve the current positive market structure and provide a foundation for further gains. However, a sustained break below support could weaken near-term sentiment and increase the risk of a pullback toward the 34,800 region.

Global Market Sentiment

Global markets remain focused on inflation dynamics, economic growth prospects, and the trajectory of central bank policy. Investors continue to parse incoming economic data for signs of moderating inflation and slowing growth, while policymakers have reiterated that future decisions will remain dependent on incoming data rather than a predetermined policy path.

Market participants are also keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments and international trade trends, both of which continue to influence investor sentiment and commodity markets. With uncertainty surrounding the pace of global growth, defensive positioning remains evident across several asset classes.

In Canada, investors are monitoring domestic economic indicators and expectations surrounding future Bank of Canada policy decisions, with inflation, labour market conditions, and consumer spending remaining key areas of focus.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: Crude oil fell 3% to $78.4 per barrel on Tuesday, following a 4.9% decline on Monday, extending losses for a fourth consecutive session and reaching the lowest level since early March.
• Gold: Gold traded above $4,300 an ounce on Tuesday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, as expectations that a US-Iran peace agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased fears of an energy-driven inflation shock that had fueled interest rate hike expectations.
• Silver: Silver traded near $70 an ounce on Tuesday after rising almost 3% in the previous session, as expectations that a US-Iran peace agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased fears of an energy-driven inflation shock that had fueled interest rate hike expectations.
• Copper: Copper futures held around $6.45 per pound on Tuesday, hovering near record highs as risk appetite improved following reports that the US and Iran reached an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Sector watch

Energy: Expected to remain one of the strongest drivers of TSX performance if crude oil prices maintain recent momentum, however today its again down.

Materials: Gold miners could continue benefiting from elevated bullion prices, while diversified miners remain closely tied to industrial metal trends.

Financials: Canadian banks will be closely watching bond yields, credit conditions, and evolving interest-rate expectations.

Industrials: Infrastructure and transportation companies could respond to changes in commodity demand and broader economic growth expectations.

Technology: Rate-sensitive technology shares are likely to track U.S. market performance and Treasury yield movements.

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar remains closely linked to commodity prices, particularly crude oil, while broader U.S. dollar movements continue to influence currency markets. Sustained commodity strength could provide additional support to the loonie.

Canadian government bond yields are expected to remain sensitive to inflation expectations and global rate developments. Yield movements will likely have an important influence on financials, utilities, and other interest-rate-sensitive sectors.

What to watch today

• Early price action in crude oil, gold, and copper
• Global inflation and economic data releases
• Canadian and U.S. bond yield movements
• Canadian dollar performance against the U.S. dollar
• Central bank commentary and policy-related headlines
• Corporate updates from major TSX-listed energy, mining, and financial companies

Outlook

TSX expected to open cautiously higher as investors monitor commodity trends, global macroeconomic signals, and interest-rate expectations for fresh market direction.

Bottom line: Commodity price trends, inflation expectations, and bond yield movements are likely to remain the primary drivers of TSX trading on June 16, with energy, materials, and financials expected to lead overall market performance.