The TSX Index is expected to open on a green note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a positive note, supported by strength in the healthcare and financial sectors during the previous trading session.

From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade comfortably above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the prevailing bullish trend and signalling that buyers remain firmly in control of the broader market direction. Momentum remains constructive, with price action continuing to hold above key support levels. The index is now approaching an important resistance zone near 35,500, which represents a critical test of upside momentum. A decisive breakout above this level could strengthen bullish sentiment, attract additional buying interest, and open the door for a move toward the psychologically significant 35,750 level. However, failure to clear resistance may lead to short-term consolidation before the next directional move emerges.

Global Market Sentiment

Global markets remain focused on a combination of economic data, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risks. Investors continue to evaluate whether easing inflation trends will allow central banks to gradually shift toward a more accommodative policy stance while balancing concerns over slowing economic growth.

Recent economic indicators have painted a mixed picture. Labour markets remain relatively resilient across major economies, but manufacturing activity and business investment have shown signs of moderation. As a result, markets remain highly sensitive to upcoming inflation reports, retail sales data, and central bank commentary.

Geopolitical tensions in key energy-producing regions continue to support commodity market volatility, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors and influencing risk sentiment globally.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: Crude oil was below $76 per barrel on Wednesday, hovering at its lowest level since early March amid expectations of a US-Iran deal that could rapidly add supply back to the global market.
• Gold: Gold traded above $4,300 per ounce on Wednesday and was up more than 2% so far this week, as investors awaited the signing of a US-Iran peace agreement that is expected to restore oil flows through the Persian Gulf, helping ease concerns over inflation and interest rates.
• Silver: Silver traded around $70 per ounce on Wednesday and was up about 3% so far this week, as investors awaited the signing of a US-Iran peace agreement that is expected to restore oil flows through the Persian Gulf, helping ease concerns over inflation and interest rates.
• Copper: Copper futures held around $6.5 per pound on Wednesday, hovering near record highs as risk appetite improved following reports that the US and Iran reached an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Sector watch

Energy: Expected to remain the primary market driver as investors react to movements in crude oil prices and geopolitical developments.

Materials: Gold miners could continue outperforming if safe-haven demand persists, while diversified miners remain tied to industrial metal trends.

Financials: Canadian banks will be closely watching bond yields and economic growth expectations, which remain important drivers of lending and profitability outlooks.

Industrials: Transportation and infrastructure-related companies may respond to shifting economic growth expectations and commodity demand trends.

Technology: TSX technology names are likely to follow broader North American market sentiment and movements in Treasury yields.

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar remains closely linked to commodity prices, particularly crude oil. Continued strength in energy markets could provide support for the loonie, while broader U.S. dollar trends remain an important factor.

Canadian government bond yields are expected to track U.S. Treasury movements as investors assess inflation expectations and economic growth prospects. Yield volatility could influence financials, utilities, and real estate stocks throughout the session.

What to watch today

• Early moves in crude oil, gold, and copper
• Geopolitical developments affecting energy markets
• Canadian and U.S. bond yield movements
• Inflation and economic data releases
• Canadian dollar performance against the U.S. dollar
• Corporate updates from major TSX-listed energy, mining, and financial companies

Outlook

TSX expected to open cautiously as investors balance geopolitical risks, commodity strength, and evolving interest-rate expectations.

Bottom line: Elevated commodity prices and bond yield movements are likely to remain the key drivers for the TSX on June 17, with energy and materials expected to lead market activity while investors closely monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.