The TSX Index is expected to open on a healthy note

The S&P/TSX Composite index is expected to open on a positive note, supported by strength in the healthcare and financial sectors during the previous Trading session.

From a technical standpoint, the index is approaching a key horizontal resistance zone near 35,400, which continues to limit near-term upside momentum and represents an important test of the broader bullish trend. Immediate support is located around 35,100, and a sustained break below this level could weaken sentiment and increase the risk of a pullback toward the 34,800 area. Conversely, a decisive breakout above 35,400 would signal renewed buying strength, potentially attracting additional investor interest and paving the way for a move toward 35,700. Overall, the broader trend remains constructive, but confirmation through a sustained break above resistance is needed to strengthen the bullish outlook and support further gains.

Global Market Sentiment

Global markets are entering the final trading session of the week with attention firmly focused on labour market data, which could provide important clues about the future path of Monetary Policy. Investors continue to evaluate whether moderating Inflation and slowing economic activity will be sufficient to support interest-rate cuts later in the year.

Recent economic releases have painted a mixed picture, with consumer Demand showing resilience while Manufacturing and Business activity indicators remain uneven across major economies. As a result, markets remain highly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data and Central Bank commentary.

In Canada, investors are watching domestic economic indicators alongside developments in the United States, given their implications for the Bank of Canada’s policy outlook and broader market sentiment.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: WTI crude futures held around $93 per barrel on Friday after losing more than 3% in the previous session, weighed down by hopes that the US and Iran could still find a diplomatic solution to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Gold: Gold fell below $4,450 an ounce on Friday and was set for a weekly decline of more than 2%, pressured by ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East that kept inflation risks and Interest Rate concerns in focus.
• Silver: Silver fell below $73 an ounce on Friday and was set for a weekly decline of nearly 4%, pressured by ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East that kept inflation risks and interest rate concerns in focus.
• Copper: Copper futures declined toward $6.4 per pound on Friday, retreating further from record highs as expectations for tighter monetary policy in response to an energy-driven inflation shock weighed on demand prospects.

Sector watch

Energy: Likely to remain a key Market Leader if Crude Oil prices maintain recent strength.

Materials: Gold producers may benefit from defensive investor flows, while base-metal miners respond to industrial commodity pricing.

Financials: Canadian banks remain sensitive to Yield/">Bond Yield movements and economic growth expectations.

Industrials: Transportation and infrastructure-related companies may react to broader economic sentiment and growth forecasts.

Technology: TSX technology stocks are likely to follow U.S. market trends and Treasury Yield movements.

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar continues to track commodity prices and broader U.S. dollar performance. Strength in crude oil could provide support for the loonie and reinforce confidence in Canadian resource sectors.

Bond markets are likely to remain active ahead of key employment data. Any significant move in Canadian or U.S. yields could influence rate-sensitive sectors, including financials, utilities, and real estate. 

What to watch today

• Canadian and U.S. employment data releases
• Early moves in crude oil, gold, and copper
• Canadian dollar performance versus the U.S. dollar
• Canada and U.S. bond yield movements
• Corporate updates from major TSX energy, Mining, and financial companies

Outlook

TSX expected to open cautiously positive as investors await key labour market data while commodity prices continue to support resource-heavy sectors.

Bottom Line: Employment data, commodity price action, and bond yield movements will likely be the key drivers for the TSX on June 5, with energy, materials, and financials expected to remain at the center of investor attention.