The TSX Index is expected to open on a higher note

The S&P/TSX Composite index is expected to open on a positive note, supported by gains in the technology and financial sectors from the previous Trading session. From a technical perspective, the index is approaching a key horizontal resistance zone near the 35,100 level, which continues to cap near-term upside momentum and highlights some vulnerability in the broader trend structure. As long as the index remains below this resistance area, the short-term outlook is likely to remain cautious, with the potential for consolidation or a mild corrective move. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 34,700 level, and a sustained break below this area could weaken market sentiment and expose the index to further downside toward 34,300. Conversely, a decisive breakout above the 35,100 resistance zone would strengthen the technical outlook and could pave the way for a move towards the 35,300 level over the coming sessions.

Global Market Sentiment

Global markets begin June with a focus on economic growth indicators and Central Bank policy expectations. Investors continue to weigh signs of moderating Inflation against resilient labour markets, a combination that has complicated the timing of potential rate cuts by major central banks.

Recent economic data from North America and Europe has pointed to slower but still positive growth, while Manufacturing activity remains uneven across regions. Markets are increasingly focused on upcoming inflation reports, employment data, and Business activity surveys that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada over the coming months.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments and global trade dynamics remain key factors influencing risk sentiment and Commodity prices.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: WTI Crude Oil futures rose more than 3% to above $90 per barrel on Monday, rebounding from a six-week low as uncertainty persisted over a proposed US-Iran agreement to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Gold: Gold steadied above $4,500 an ounce on Monday following a volatile week, as efforts to secure a longer-term ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran showed limited signs of progress.
• Silver: Silver steadied above $75 an ounce on Monday following a volatile week, as efforts to secure a longer-term ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran showed limited signs of progress.
• Copper: Copper futures climbed above $6.4 per pound on Monday, reaching their highest levels in more than two weeks as tightening global supplies and robust Demand expectations continued to support the market.

Sector watch

Energy: Expected to remain the primary source of market leadership if crude oil prices remain firm.

Materials: Gold producers may benefit from safe-haven demand, while copper and diversified miners track industrial commodity trends.

Financials: Canadian banks will be watching bond yields and economic growth signals closely as investors assess the interest-rate outlook.

Industrials: Transportation and infrastructure-related companies could see increased attention if global growth expectations improve.

Technology: TSX technology names are likely to follow broader U.S. market sentiment and Yield/">Treasury Yield movements

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar remains closely tied to commodity prices, particularly crude oil. A stronger loonie could weigh on exporters, while commodity-driven currency strength may reflect improving confidence in Canada's resource sectors.

Canadian government bond yields are expected to track movements in U.S. Treasuries. Yield Volatility could influence performance across financials, utilities, and real estate stocks. 

What to watch today

• Early moves in crude oil, gold, and copper
• Manufacturing and economic activity data from major economies
• Canada and U.S. Bond Yield movements
• Any fresh comments from central bank officials
• Corporate developments from large-cap TSX energy, Mining, and financial companies

Outlook

TSX expected to open cautiously as investors begin the month focused on commodity prices, economic growth signals, and the evolving interest-rate outlook.

Bottom Line: Oil, gold, and bond yields are likely to set the tone for TSX trading on June 1, with energy, materials, and financials expected to remain the key sectors driving market performance.