TSX Hits Fresh High as Trade Optimism and Robust US Jobs Data Lift Markets

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update:

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose over 0.95% to 25,031.51 on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The underpinned sentiments were positive because of easing US-China trade tensions and a stronger than expected US jobs report lifted investor sentiments. The rally was driven by Beijing’s signal to resume trade talks, contingent on the US scaling back tariffs, easing concerns over prolonged trade frictions.

Macro Update:

The Canadian dollar traded at 1.38 per USD, earing its strongest level since October, supported by strong G10 currency momentum, amid softer concerns of a recession domestically and a weak dollar. Canadian GDP grew 0.1% in March, despite declines in key commodities, signaling resilience against US weakness.

Politically, the Liberal Party won a fourth consecutive election by a narrow margin, placing Mark Carney as Prime Minister of a minority government.

Canadian 10-year yields fell below 3.12%, hitting a near two-week low, as softer domestic and U.S. economic data led investors to price in further easing by North American central banks.

Top Movers and Losers:

The biggest gainers of the session on the S&P/TSX Composite were Aritzia Inc (TSX: ATZ), which rose 13.75%. TerraVest Industries Inc (TSX: TVK) added 9.47% and Algoma Steel Group Inc (TSX: ASTL) was up 7.69%. Biggest losers included MDA Ltd (TSX: MDA), which fell 14.34%. Magna International Inc (TSX: MG) declined 5.79% and Tilray Inc (TSX: TLRY) down 4.55.

Our Stance:

The index remains in bullish configuration, trading above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.85 indicates continued market strength. The index is currently testing a key support level near 24,600, which is critical for maintaining upward momentum. A drop below this level could prompt a pullback, with the next support zones identified between 24,300 and 24,000.

Commodity Update:

The U.S. dollar weakened on Monday amid a sharp rise in the Taiwanese dollar, fueling speculation of regional currency revaluations to gain U.S. trade leverage. Gold rose 1.10% to $3,278.92, silver edged up 0.19% to $32.32, and copper climbed 2.07% to $9,398.25. Brent crude fell 3.39% to $59.20 in early Asian trade on rising supply concerns as OPEC+ plans faster output hikes.

Technical Update:

On Friday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced by 235.96 points, closing at 25,031.51 an increase of 0.95%. This gain was underpinned by strong trading volumes, reflecting ongoing investor confidence. Leading the charge was the industrial sector, which climbed 1.74%, highlighting growing optimism in that segment. Technically, the index remains in a bullish configuration, trading above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.85 indicates continued market strength. The index is currently testing a key support level near 24,600, which is critical for maintaining upward momentum. A drop below this level could prompt a pullback, with the next support zones identified between 24,300 and 24,000. Sustaining levels above this range is vital for preserving the current bullish outlook.