Investors in Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.7% to close at US$12.98 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues of US$116m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.07, an impressive 72% smaller than what broker models predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Medifast. View them for free.NYSE:MED Earnings and Revenue Growth May 2nd 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the solitary analyst covering Medifast provided consensus estimates of US$390.1m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a concerning 28% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.96 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$414.4m and losses of US$1.02 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analyst becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

View our latest analysis for Medifast

The consensus price target fell 9.1% to US$15.00, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Medifast's past performance and to peers in the same industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 4.3% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 36% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Medifast is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analyst made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Story Continues

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Medifast. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Medifast going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the  1 warning sign  we've spotted with Medifast .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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